The U of I Flash Index fell slightly to 106.5 in December from its 106.6 level in November. Over calendar year 2014 the index remained in a remarkably narrow range from 106.0 to 107.2, changing by only a few tenths of a point each month.
Throughout 2014, the index remained well above 100, the dividing line between growth and decline, indicating slow and steady economy growth.
“Continued growth in 2014 had a long overdue impact on the state’s unemployment rate that has fallen markedly from 9.0 percent to 6.4 percent over the last 12 months,” said J. Fred Giertz, who compiles the Flash Index for the University of Illinois Institute of Government and Public Affairs.
Illinois’ unemployment rate is still above the national level of 5.8 percent, but is much improved from the two percentage point differential a year ago. This is part of a national trend that has been characterized by strong growth after the weather-related decline in the first quarter of 2014.
Two components of the index (the individual income tax and sales tax receipts) were up in real terms from the same month last year while there was a decrease in corporate tax receipts.
The Flash Index is a weighted average of Illinois growth rates in corporate earnings, consumer spending and personal income. Tax receipts from corporate income, personal income and retail sales are adjusted for inflation before growth rates are calculated. The growth rate for each component is then calculated for the 12-month period using data through December 31, 2014.
