The Flash Index rose slightly to 106.6 in November from its 106.5 level in October. The index remains in the 106-107 range it has occupied since February of this year.
“While the Flash Index has remained relatively steady, other measures of economic activity have shown dramatic improvement,” said J. Fred Giertz, who compiles the Flash Index for the University of Illinois Institute of Government and Public Affairs. Although the Flash Index has not moved much in the past ten months, it has stayed above 100, the dividing line between economic growth and decline. “This period of steady growth has finally begun to register in areas such as unemployment,” said Giertz.
The Illinois unemployment rate has fallen in the last year from 9.1 percent to 6.6 percent. While the Illinois rate is still higher than the national rate, it is less than one percentage point above the national level. This is an improvement compared to a two-point differential a year ago. The U.S. economy has shown strong growth over the last two quarters—4.6 percent in the second quarter and 3.9 in the third quarter.
The U.S. economy is now outperforming much of the rest of the world. Two components of the index (the individual income tax and corporate tax receipts) were down in real terms from the same month last year while there was an increase in sales tax receipts.
The Flash Index is a weighted average of Illinois growth rates in corporate earnings, consumer spending and personal income. Tax receipts from corporate income, personal income and retail sales are adjusted for inflation before growth rates are calculated. The growth rate for each component is then calculated for the 12-month period using data through November 30, 2014.
